THE OIL AGE
by C.J.Campbell in the Handbook of Energy Politics
This article written by Colin Campbell in the Handbook of Energy Politics in 2018 is perhaps more relevant today than ever before.
Oil and gas have provided very important sources of energy that fuelled the economic expansion of the world over the past century, but they are finite natural resources formed in the geological past, which means that they are subject to depletion. As discussed in this article, the evidence indicates that this remarkable oil-driven chapter of history is about half over. Logic suggests that the Second Half of the Oil Age, which dawns, may be marked by economic contraction contrasting with the expansion of the First Half. The transition threatens to be time of great tension, but gradually as people come to recognise that the circumstances are imposed by Nature they may come to adapt in positive and constructive ways. It is by all means an important issue with far-reaching economic, social, financial and political consequences. But it is a complex topic, and the data needed for proper analysis are far from reliable.
Looking ahead, it is obvious that the world faces radical changes. Today, annual production of some 57 billion barrels of oil and gas (the latter quoted in terms of energy equivalent) supports a population of 7 billion people, but by 2050 the supply will be sufficient to support little more than half that number in their present way of life. Agriculture has been described as process that turns oil into food, having become very oil dependent for fuelling the tractors and transport as well as providing artificial nutrients. The transition threatens to be a time of great tension as indeed has already been witnessed by riots and revolutions around the world. People facing soaring food prices and growing unemployment tend to blame their governments, as already witnessed especially in North Africa and parts of the Middle East in the so-called Arab Spring. These countries tended to have dictatorial regimes, and people hoped that democracy would improve their lot, which is unlikely to be realised because the underlying cause is depletion imposed by Nature.
It is not solely an issue of petroleum supply as such, as the modern world is also destroying its environment, depleting water supplies, cutting down forests and causing soil erosion, as fully discussed by Gore[i] and Heinberg[ii]. Industrial emissions may also be affecting the climate, as some scientists believe, although it has changed many times in the geological past in response to solar cycles, massive volcanic eruptions and other factors.
[i] Gore A., 2000, Earth in Balance – ISBN 978-1-84407-484-6.
[ii] Heinberg R., 2003, The Party’s Over. ISBN 0-86571-482-7.