The Geopolitics of Oil: The role of Russia
an extract from the Geopolitics of Oil by Melvin A. Conant in A Research Agenda for Energy Pollitics
The Role of Russia
In light of congtemporary developments in Europe it is interesting to revisit an extract from “The Geopolitics of Oil” written more than 25 years ago. The narrative by Melvin A. Conant provides an historical overview of the role of the Russia, the former Soviet Union, and its continued relevance to contemporary issues in the geopolitics of energy (Conant, 1994).
“As various proposals are reviewed to link Russian-controlled oil and gas pipelines to East Asia, the web of pipelines now under consideration for moving supplies eastward suggests a renewed Russian influence across EurAsia, long a goal of the previous Soviet Union. Moreover, the question of transporting oil and gas from the southern republics of the former Soviet Union through Iran and/or Turkey is patently of long-standing security and political importance to Russia.
Oil and gas from the former Soviet Union is also of singular importance to Europe, despite Russia's current difficulties in maintaining production and the attendant risk that exports could yet be curtailed. Some countries -notably the United States – once anticipated that a growing European dependence on Soviet exports could give rise to serious security risks. Yet, in less than a decade, the industrial importing nations seek ways to shore up Russian production and exports. And there are serious difficulties in that respect. Robert Ebel warns:
"A weakened Russian oil industry cannot begin to offer any alternative to Middle East oil. Nor can it lead to economic reform in that country. Economic rejuvenation generally is not thought likely unless and until the health of the oil sector has been reasonably restored. A time of trouble would await if Russia, by virtue of continued oil production declines, would be forced to cut back on exports to hard currency markets. Not only would it be deprived of its leading source of hard currency earnings, but more importantly the loss of a major world oil supplier, as Russia is and has been, carries political and economic implications for all."
As for China, the oil potential said to underlie the South China Sea could likely be of increasing importance in a future conflict with Vietnam. (The latter has already made clear that its claim to these prospective reserves is "non negotiable.") Or will the Tarim Basin of western China prove to be hugely prolific? It is too soon to count on this new source of urgently needed oil but its location along inner-Asian frontiers will be of special geopolitical importance to Russia and China alike.
The geopolitical implications of Russia's oil situation loom very large, and have significant historic precedence. During World War II, oil geopolitics quickly became a major force behind German moves into southern Russia, as it did in Russian determination to keep German forces out of the Caucasus. Scarcely had that war ended when Russia moved to solidify control over Azerbaijan. Russian forces on the Iranian border threatened incursions from the north toward the oil wealth of Iran and the Gulf. U.S. action was the key factor in limiting Russia’s moves southward.
Until the 1980s, Russia had no need for access to Middle East oil, though it did develop tactics designed to destabilize relations between oil producers and importers, and in particular with the United States, against a background of historic interest in securing access to the Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Countering US influence in the region, the Russians turned Iraq, a leading oil exporter, into their ally in the Gulf.
Changes in the top leadership in both countries in the late 1980s enabled the United States and the then-Soviet Union to reach a private understanding that neither of the superpowers would challenge the other's vital interests in the Middle East. For a time at least, access to Gulf oil was not at risk. While Russia has continued to observe that understanding, political change within the Kremlin could alter its policies toward the Gulf and the United States. Moreover, oil importing nations are currently watching Russian moves toward former Soviet republics whose geographical location and expectations of oil and gas reserves are clearly of interest to the Kremlin, and several of these new republics will have contacts in the Gulf.
Realistically there is for the near-term little prospect that Russia will have the military capabilities to threaten an industrial oil importer's access to Middle East oil. However, Russian forces could again impress upon the Caucasus and Central Asia its historic imperative to be in control of these borderlands. Russian tactics in the Middle East may again be troubling to the United States and other key importers. In April of this year, for example, Russia concluded “defensive” arms deal with Syria citing the arms deliveries of the United States to Israel. The geopolitics of the Gulf are like a shadowy presence in world affairs, never absent.”
If the Europe United States were to move more actively to develop oil sources to replace its dependence on Russia and the Gulf, Venezuela and Canada would be the leading candidates. These countries' increasing extraction of unconventional crudes for export to the United States as well as to Europe and relationship with either producer to the Far East (in the case of Venezuela) could make a crucial difference. The United States ‘-"' has for years avoided any clear special largely because it saw no need to tie itself to "preferential" sources and partly, at least in Canada's case, because the United States has assumed their conventional and unconventional crudes may have no other market. On the other hand, Japan has shown interest in both Canadian and Venezuelan unconventional crudes as a potentially important further diversification of its crude supplies.
Remarkably, 25 years after this was written, Russian ambitions in Europe and the Gulf remain intact, once again casting a spectre over global energy politics.
References
Considine, Jennifer I., and Keun-wook Paik, eds. Handbook of Energy Politics. Cheltenham, UK ; Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Pub, 2018.
Ebel, Robert E., Russi-King of the Oil Hill, CSIS, July 21, 2004
Conant, Melvin A. ,The Geopolitics of Oil, Geopolitics of Energy, Volume 16, Number 7, July 1, 1994, Washington DC, © Copyright 1994 Canadian Energy Research Institute
Disclaimer
This book presents a variety of ideas and perspectives on the Future Research Agenda for Energy Politics, some are complimentary, others perhaps in opposition to mainstream economic and political thought. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors. Where the text refers to statements made by third parties every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions, but the ultimate responsibility for the interpretation lies with the authors. The views presented in this book are not attributable to any specific participant, even those within specific chapters with joint authorship.